JPMorgan: Crypto Markets Now Driven by Macro Trends, Not the Halving Cycle
In its latest note, JPMorgan said crypto markets are increasingly driven by macroeconomic trends rather than Bitcoin’s familiar halving cycle, which historically preceded major bull runs, as per a report.
The bank said that, “Crypto is moving away from resembling a venture capital style ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation,” as quoted by The Street.
Institutional Investors Replace Retail Traders in Crypto Markets
The analysts wrote that, “Cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by broader economic trends rather than crypto’s predictable four-year halving cycle, the process where the rate of new supply of Bitcoin is cut in half and followed by a bull market rally,” as quoted in the report.
The bank explained that retail participation has dropped and institutional investors now provide market depth, which stabilises flows and potentially anchoring long-term prices.
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BTC USD Target: Bitcoin Price Could Reach $240,000
At a JPMorgan event, one speaker suggested that Bitcoin could potentially reach $240,000 over the long term, describing BTC not as a cyclical asset but as a multi-year growth opportunity, as per The Street report.Despite the structural shift, JPMorgan cautioned that crypto remains a “liquid yet structurally inefficient” market. Because liquidity is uneven, the asset class can still experience sudden and severe price swings.
JPMorgan Introduces New Structured Note Linked to BlackRock’s IBIT
The bank also filed a new structured product tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). The note offers the possibility of uncapped upside through 2028 if Bitcoin rallies, but with several conditions, as per The Street.
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How JPMorgan’s Bitcoin-Linked IBIT Note Works for Investors
If IBIT reaches or exceeds JPMorgan’s preset price by the end of 2026, the bank redeems the note early and pays investors a minimum return of 16 percent.
If IBIT stays below that level, the note continues through 2028 with leveraged exposure. Investors may earn 1.5 times their principal with no upper limit if IBIT surpasses the bank’s 2028 target.
The structure includes downside protection, allowing investors to recover principal in 2028 unless IBIT drops more than 30 percent that year.
However, the bank’s risk disclosure warns that the product does not guarantee the return of principal. If the note is not called early and IBIT’s final value ends below the barrier, investors will lose 1 percent of their principal for every 1 percent decline in the ETF. Under some outcomes, investors could lose their entire principal.
FAQs
What price does JPMorgan think Bitcoin price BTC USD could reach long term?
JPMorgan says Bitcoin could potentially climb to $240,000 over the long term.
Is the halving cycle still influencing Bitcoin?
JPMorgan says broader economic trends now play a bigger role than the halving cycle.